People's Daily: Need to guard against the risk of stock market volatility

Since the beginning of this year, under the guidance of the new development concept, all regions and departments have adhered to the general tone of steady progress, actively adapting, grasping and leading the new normal of economic development, to promote supply-side structural reform as the main line, and moderately expand aggregate demand. Accelerating the cultivation of new kinetic energy for economic development, there have been many positive changes in the main operational indicators of China's economy. The overall operation of the national economy has continued its steady and positive trend since the second half of last year, and the macroeconomic operation continues to improve.

Economic prosperity, quality and efficiency improvement From the perspective of short-term macroeconomic operation, some fast variables and leading indicators such as orders, prices, enterprise inventory and investment indicate that market expectations are improving and economic prosperity is rising. From the perspective of medium and long-term macroeconomic development, Factors that are conducive to stable and healthy economic development, such as industrial structure optimization and consumption structure upgrading, are releasing positive signals.
Short-term economic indicators reflect an increase in economic sentiment. From the leading indicators, manufacturing production tends to expand, and the service industry continues its rapid growth momentum. As of June this year, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index has been above the 50% line for 11 consecutive months. The supply of raw materials in the manufacturing industry has accelerated, the willingness of enterprises to replenish their stocks has increased, and production activities have become more active. Non-manufacturing business activities have been stable for more than 54% in the expansion period for 9 months, including the air transport industry, postal services, telecommunications, radio and television transmission services, Internet and software information technology services, financial services and other industries. Located in the higher boom zone, the total business volume has grown rapidly. In terms of physical quantity, the indicators of electricity consumption and freight volume have been greatly improved. From January to May this year, the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year, and the volume of railway freight transportation increased by 15.2%, indicating that the economic recovery is obvious.
Periodic indicators convey a positive signal of economic trends. First, the production cycle adjustment is basically in place. International experience shows that the continuation of the unilateral downward trend of the production cycle is about 7 years. The downward cycle of China's production capacity since 2010 has approached this target. In fact, this year, companies have taken the initiative to cover the inventory has confirmed this. Second, the industrial producer price index has achieved a trend-turning positive. Due to being close to the market, price changes tend to be faster than production reactions. Affected by the general rise in international commodity prices, the prices of China's “three blacks and one color” (coal, steel, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals) have risen alternately. The industrial producer price index has turned down since September last year, and this year has achieved trend. Turn positive and promote the expansion of industrial demand. Third, the economic benefits of enterprises have improved significantly. The production and operation status of the company continued to improve, and the income and profit of the main business maintained rapid growth. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 22.7% in the first five months, the highest level since the same period in 2012.

The economy is stable and the market is good. There are various support forces. In the medium and long term, China's economic development is in the middle and high-speed growth stage of the long-term period. It is moving from the upper middle income stage to the high income stage. The economic development has a solid foundation, huge potential and A vast space for maneuver. At present, there are many supporting forces in China's economic operation.
The microscopic subject is expected to rejuvenate. The reform of “release, management and service” continued to advance, the market access environment was continuously optimized, and new types of political and business relations were being formed, which effectively promoted mass entrepreneurship and innovation. The number of market players continues to grow rapidly. Last year, the number of newly added market entities in the country was 16.51 million, an increase of 11%; the number of newly registered enterprises was 5.5 million, and the number of newly registered enterprises per day reached 15,000. At present, the number of market entities in China ranks first in the world, the number of entrepreneurs has exceeded the total population of Germany, and the number of market entities has exceeded the total number of market entities in the United States, the European Union and Japan. The micro-subjects rejuvenated and made breakthroughs in supporting innovation and development. Last year, the number of domestic effective invention patents exceeded 1 million, and a number of significant scientific and technological achievements such as supercomputers that used self-developed chips continued to emerge.
New industries, new products, and new economies are constantly developing. The new industry is booming. In May this year, the added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.3% and 10.3% respectively, which was higher than the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. New products continue to grow rapidly. The output of new products such as sporty multi-purpose passenger cars, new energy vehicles, industrial robots, integrated circuits, and smart TVs has increased significantly. The new economy is in the ascendant. The new generation of Internet technology represented by big data has accelerated its penetration into various fields of economy and society, and has had a major impact on production and distribution methods, and has injected new impetus into economic and social development. In the first five months of this year, online retail sales increased by 32.5% year-on-year, 22.2 percentage points faster than the retail sales of social consumer goods. New services such as shared bicycles, online car, fast delivery, online medical care, and distance education continued to grow strongly.
The role of domestic demand in promoting economic growth has increased. China's domestic demand-driven economy is increasingly forming. In the first quarter of this year, the contribution rate of final consumption and capital formation to economic growth reached 95.8%. On the one hand, the scale of consumption has expanded and the consumption structure has continued to escalate. Demand for services such as tourism, medical care, health care and housekeeping is increasing. The consumption potential of home decoration and automobiles and housing and transportation is continuously released. Consumption continues to maintain double-digit growth, and the consumer goods retail market ranks second in the world. The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth continues to increase. On the other hand, the investment complements the short board effect. From January to May this year, infrastructure investment boosted fixed assets investment by 3.9 percentage points, contributing 45.6% to all investments. Among them, the investment in the short-board and weak links of ecological protection and environmental governance, public facilities management, road transportation and water conservancy management has increased substantially, which has effectively enhanced the stamina of economic development.
All-round opening up will create favorable conditions for economic development. The construction of “One Belt, One Road” accelerated, and the results of project cooperation exceeded expectations. The pace of China's economic and trade cooperation with the “Belt and Road” to participate in the country has been accelerating, and the two-way investment has maintained a high level. In the case of a 13% drop in global foreign direct investment flows last year, China’s foreign investment increased by 2.3% from the previous year to reach US$139 billion, ranking third in the world. In the first four months of this year, the number of newly signed contracts between Chinese enterprises and the “Belt and Road” construction countries was US$31.85 billion, with a turnover of US$18.95 billion and non-financial direct investment of US$3.98 billion. The international capacity cooperation was steadily advanced, and a number of major projects were successfully implemented, successfully driving a batch of equipment, technology, standards and services to go out.

Attaching great importance to contradictions and problems in economic operations At present, the deep structural contradictions accumulated in the long-term accumulation of China's economic development have not been fundamentally alleviated, and risks in some areas are still accumulating. To maintain a stable and healthy economic development, we need to correctly understand and attach great importance to the contradictions and problems in economic operations.
External uncertainty shocks have not been eliminated. Although international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have raised their expectations for global economic growth this year, it should be noted that the deep adjustment of the world economy after the international financial crisis has not yet been fully in place, and the overall characteristics of the moderate recovery of the world economy have not changed significantly. The turbulent impact of policy changes in major economies may still affect the smooth operation of China's economy.
The real economy still faces many difficulties. First, the pressure for rising costs is still relatively large. Some external transaction costs such as taxes and fees have not yet come down. Capital, land, energy, environmental protection, transportation and logistics, labor costs and some internal management costs have also made enterprises feel greater operating pressure. Second, the problem of financing difficulties in financing is still outstanding. Some enterprises have increased accounts receivable and the payback period has been lengthened, and capital turnover has been difficult. The bank's risk awareness has generally increased, and lending has become more cautious. Some small and micro enterprises have difficulty in financing. Third, the real economic benefits are still low. Since the profit rate of the real economy is much lower than that of the virtual economy, some manufacturing enterprises have begun to develop into the real estate and financial sectors, and to make up for the “business failure”. This phenomenon is not conducive to industrial upgrading and stable and healthy economic development.
The hidden dangers of economic and financial risks cannot be ignored. The current systemic risk is generally controllable, but it is highly vigilant against the accumulated risks of non-performing assets, bond defaults, shadow banking, and internet finance. In the financial sector, the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks continued to rise, corporate bond defaults increased significantly, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate remained high. Bank risks, credit risks and capital outflow risks were worthy of attention. In the financial sector, local finances have been significantly reduced, and fiscal revenues and expenditures are inconsistent. In the real estate sector, the rapid rise in housing prices in first- and second-tier cities has led to the formation of asset bubbles, and the pressure on stocks in third- and fourth-tier cities is still relatively large.

Turning the economic growth potential into a comprehensive judgment of real economic growth , the steady state of China's economic bottom is becoming increasingly clear, especially in the context of the market's expected steady improvement, the enthusiasm of all aspects of entrepreneurial entrepreneurship is significantly enhanced. This will help speed up the resolution of various risks and solve major structural imbalances. It is expected that the annual economic growth will continue to maintain the medium and high level. At present, we should speed up the implementation of the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of various tasks in the "Government Work Report", deepen the supply-side structural reform, accelerate the transformation of new and old kinetic energy and economic structure, and transform the economic growth potential into real economic growth and promote The economy is stable and healthy.
Deepen the structural reform of the supply side and enhance the competitive advantage of the real economy. Further resolve the problem of overcapacity in traditional industries, effectively reduce the cost of physical enterprises, open up funds to the flow of real economy, accelerate the reform of “release, management, and service” and reform of state-owned enterprises, and support the innovation and development of the real economy by creating a good business environment.
Maintain policy stability and promote balanced growth in supply and demand. Stabilize and expand effective demand, increase government investment to fill shortcomings, enhance the confidence and willingness of private investment development through innovative institutional mechanisms; foster new consumption to promote consumption structure upgrade, release consumption growth potential; actively cultivate new export growth points and new competitive advantages, Expand the export growth space.
Strengthen the prevention of potential risks and promote the healthy development of the market. Further strengthen risk monitoring and early warning, strengthen cross-market joint prevention and control, and prevent “cross-infection” between market risks to induce systemic risks. Stabilize the development of the real estate market, guard against the risk of large fluctuations in the stock market, and prevent and control the credit default risk of the bond market.
Stabilize employment and increase residents' income, and strengthen people's livelihood security. Efforts will be made to resolve the structural contradictions of employment and the uncertain factors affecting the income growth of residents, promote the reform of the personal income tax system, carry out in-depth poverty alleviation, multiply the employment base of the residents, diversify the income of the residents, build the bottom line of the people's livelihood, enhance the welfare of the people, and promote Social harmony and stability.
(Author: China Academy of Macroeconomics)

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