The "2012 China Foreign Trade Situation Reporting Meeting" was held in Beijing today. Zhu Hongjie, deputy governor of the Export-Import Bank of China, said at the meeting that in 2011 China's export products encountered 67 trade remedy investigations. In the decade from the accession to the end of 2010, China received nearly 700 trade remedy investigations. It is not difficult to predict that the trade protection shocks China will face in the future will not decrease. Zhu Hongjie also pointed out that although our total import and export volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion US dollars in 2011, the overall judgment of the foreign trade development environment in the next period is: the external environment is not optimistic, and internal problems need to be resolved. The following is a textual record: Ladies and gentlemen: Good morning! I am very happy to attend this meeting. I would like to take this opportunity to talk about promoting the steady growth of foreign trade and to exchange ideas with old and new friends here. Although our total import and export volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion US dollars in 2011, my overall judgment on the development environment of foreign trade in the future is: the external environment is not optimistic, and internal problems need to be resolved. Look at the external environment first. China's major trading partners have basically failed to achieve economic growth in 2011, and it is expected that it will be difficult to recover soon in 2012. The US economy is recovering slowly. The long-term hollowing out of the industry has led to a high unemployment rate, high debt, and increasingly social injustice. The United States reached its upper limit in 2011, and the total size of public debt has exceeded $15 trillion, ranking the world's largest debtor. The US local finance has been tightening since 2009, and the federal finances have now reached the point where they have to adjust. The decline in the federal deficit in fiscal 2012 is expected to be equivalent to 1-2% of GDP, which has a large downward pressure on domestic demand and economic growth. If the 2011 payroll tax credit and long-term unemployment benefits cannot continue into 2012, the US economy will face greater downside risks. Therefore, high unemployment and low growth in the United States will not be temporary and will remain for a long time. The European economy is hard to return. The European Commission predicts that the euro zone economy is now younger. The sovereign debt crisis rooted in the high welfare system has gradually spread from the marginal countries such as Greece to the core countries, and has begun to affect the economic growth of countries such as Germany and France. Countries are playing an abacus on their attitudes toward fiscal austerity policies. Greeks who are accustomed to high welfare do not work when they work. They are very active when they strike. The fiscal adjustment policy is slowed down because of opposition. International rating agencies have downgraded most of the country's ratings. At the end of February this year, Standard & Poor's downgraded the Greek rating again, marking it as "SelectiveDefault". In early March, Moody's adjusted the Greek rating to the lowest level. These will undoubtedly make the European economy worse. In the long run, the “bad money drives out good money†among different countries, the EU countries with strong competitiveness tend to become weak countries such as the European pig country. Japan’s economic outlook is bleak. In 2010, the Japanese economy just recovered from positive growth from the financial crisis. In early 2011, it suffered three attacks on the most lethal earthquakes, tsunami and nuclear leaks in the economy and society. In addition, the floods in Thailand have worsened the manufacturing supply chain. The situation is once again bleak, with real GDP growth in 2011. Due to the recovery of post-disaster reconstruction expenditures and the gradual recovery of the manufacturing supply chain, Japan’s economy will resume growth in 2012, but the recovery of the Japanese economy will be constrained by the appreciation of the yen in the short term, unsustainable government debt, and the debt crisis in the euro zone. The spillover effect, the prospects for economic growth cannot be overly optimistic. The Middle East and North Africa are turbulent. Before, no one could have expected that the death of a hawker in Tunisia could set off such a big turmoil. The storm has been one after another in the Middle East and North Africa, causing many regimes to close the curtain, the country has changed its dynasty, and some people have paid the price of their lives. But it has not brought about lasting and stable democracy and peace. Social and political turmoil directly affects the economic development of the region. The uncertainty of the economy in the coming period is mainly due to the complex geopolitical and security prospects in the region. Trade protection has come and gone. The world economy is recovering slowly, and the Chinese economy is doing a good job. The protectionist measures against China have increased significantly, and new barriers such as technology and environment have emerged one after another. In 2011, China’s export products encountered 67 trade remedy investigations. In the decade from the accession to the end of 2010, China received nearly 700 trade remedy investigations. It is not difficult to predict that the trade protection shocks China will face in the future will not decrease. Fortunately, the African economy is in the ascendant. Affected by the global economic crisis, the economic growth rate of African countries in 2009 dropped from 6% in 2006-2008 to 2.5%, but in 2010 it rose to 4.7%, and in 2011 even exceeded 5%. The increase in export demand and the rise in raw material prices have led to a gradual improvement in the African economy, but in a complex international situation, this growing new force is particularly arduous. Look at the internal issues. The stable development of foreign trade faces many challenges, many problems, and great pressure. First, the RMB exchange rate risk still exists. Since the exchange reform, the renminbi has appreciated 30% against the US dollar. If inflation is taken into account, the appreciation will be higher. It is expected that the renminbi will continue to appreciate the main trend in the coming period. In sharp contrast, the currencies of India, Russia and Brazil in the BRICS countries are depreciating against the US dollar, seriously weakening the price advantage of Chinese goods and increasing the exchange rate risk of foreign trade. Second, the problem of “funding difficulties†in enterprises is slow to solve. Macro-control policies have increased the difficulty of corporate financing, especially for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises. Commercial banks are reluctant to lend because of the lack of guarantees and collaterals for SMEs, or the management problems of SMEs. Even with financing support, the interest rate rises a lot, the interest rate of the small loan company is higher, up to four times the benchmark interest rate, and the various expenses in the loan process increase the financing cost of the enterprise. Third, factor costs have risen significantly, and traditional advantages have met with challenges. Fourth, the export risk compensation mechanism is not sound. Our current situation is that more than 90% of foreign trade enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises, and their risk-taking ability is weak. The export credit insurance coverage of foreign trade enterprises is only 10%. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are afraid to take orders because they cannot afford the risks, or I don't dare to pick up long orders and big orders, but I prefer to pick short and small orders. Since the second half of 2011, the short-term order has become more obvious. In the October 2011 Canton Fair transaction order, more than half of the short orders within 3 months, 3-6 months of orders accounted for about 1/3, orders over 6 months only accounted for about 10%. Fifth, the manufacturing industry is “two highs and one lowâ€, and the industrial division of labor is unfavorable. Ladies and Gentlemen: The steady growth of foreign trade is one of the three troikas that promotes sound and fast economic development. It is closely related to ensuring employment and promoting people's livelihood. Facing the complicated and ever-changing internal and external environment, we must take more effective measures to speed up the transformation of foreign trade development mode and promote the steady growth of foreign trade in order to address existing contradictions and new problems. In this regard, I have several suggestions: First, expand foreign aid and actively create demand. At present, it is helpful to increase foreign aid and improve the development capacity of developing countries. It will help promote South-South trade cooperation and resolve the difficulties brought about by the decline of foreign demand in developed countries. The scientific and uniform nature of foreign aid planning should be further enhanced, and innovative methods should be used to improve the efficiency of aid funds. At the same time, we will further expand the scale of concessional loans, actively encourage and support the participation of powerful and reputable Chinese enterprises in the implementation of preferential loan projects, and play a leading role in the export of Chinese loans to China while serving the country's political and economic diplomacy strategy. The second is to promote overseas investment and promote industrial transformation. The current world economic situation has provided new opportunities for Chinese companies to invest overseas. The global economy is slowly recovering. Many countries are poorly funded, they have relaxed investment restrictions for emerging countries, and their resistance has weakened. The global opportunities for asset restructuring have increased, which is beneficial for Chinese companies to purchase some strategic assets such as key technologies, brands, R&D and marketing networks. The prices of enterprises are also low; developed countries have strong desire for foreign cooperation in the fields of environmental protection, energy conservation and low-carbon economy, which has created new business opportunities for China's foreign investment. The Export-Import Bank has done a lot of work in supporting overseas investment, and its future strength will be further increased. The third is to take hedging measures to deal with exchange rate risks. At the same time as maintaining a stable exchange rate, foreign trade enterprises should be guided to take active measures to avoid exchange rate risks. Accelerate the promotion of cross-border RMB settlement, increase the RMB settlement of export trade, and expand the scope of the pilot. Introduce the exchange rate risk insurance business in a timely manner, and enhance the ability of foreign trade enterprises to withstand exchange rate fluctuations. The fourth is to increase financing and ease the pressure on funds. Banking financial institutions should increase their support for import and export trade financing with a real trade background, with a focus on SMEs with orders and benefits. It may be considered to conduct a differential assessment of the trade finance business and appropriately increase the risk tolerance for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises. The fifth is to deal with trade frictions and optimize the foreign trade environment. It is recommended that relevant ministries and commissions and industry associations closely follow up on new trade protectionist means, publicly release relevant risk warnings, increase external response, focus on trade friction response and WTO dispute settlement, and use WTO rules and laws to safeguard China's interests. To promote the growth of foreign trade. Just talk about it, thank you all!
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